Why do 80% of Electric Bicycles still use lead-acid batteries despite the overcapacity of Lithium Battery?

The rise of domestically produced new energy vehicles is inseparable from the complete domestic industrial supply chain, especially the manufacturing and cost advantages of the core component of power batteries. However, while the domestic Lithium Battery industry has experienced rapid development, there have also been drastic fluctuations in raw material prices and overcapacity.

In 2022, the price of lithium carbonate skyrocketed to 500000 yuan/ton, and in April of this year, it dropped to below 200000 yuan/ton, causing a significant decline in the price of the lithium-ion battery industry chain.

In addition, data shows that in the first eight months of this year, the production of power batteries reached 419.7 GWh, and the installed capacity was 219.2 GWh. This means that with 200GWh of batteries entering inventory, the production of power batteries far exceeds demand, and the industry is in a state of deep destocking.

However, even in the context of declining Lithium Battery prices and overcapacity, the installation rate of lead-acid batteries in the largest domestic electric vehicle market still exceeds 80%. Why do "outdated" lead-acid batteries still stand firm in the market despite the surplus of lithium batteries today? In my opinion, the main reasons are as follows:
Price is the primary factor. At present, the E Bike on the market range from 1500 yuan to 5000 yuan, and most of them use lead-acid batteries. Compared to Lithium Batteries, the biggest advantage of lead-acid batteries is their affordability.
Secondly, the biggest problem with batteries is the issue of recycling after their lifespan is reduced. Lead acid batteries have a reasonable recycling system. Even if the battery is scrapped and recycled in the future, it can still generate about 50% residual value, making it more cost-effective for consumers to purchase lead-acid batteries. For example, an entry-level lead-acid battery with a capacity of 48V 20Ah can be exchanged for a new one at a price of just over 200 yuan. However, the manufacturing process of lithium batteries is complex, with high recycling costs and poor recycling efficiency, which is also a headache.
However, with the development of technology, sodium batteries have gradually entered people's vision. It is reported that sodium batteries have the advantage of low usage cost of lead-acid batteries, while also having the advantage of long service life of lithium batteries. In recent years, driven by leading two wheeled vehicle manufacturers and sodium battery companies, the application of sodium electricity in the field of two wheeled Electric Bike has accelerated, and it is expected to experience explosive growth in the coming years.
In summary, currently, despite the decline in Lithium Battery prices and overcapacity, lead-acid batteries have unique advantages such as low price, convenient maintenance and recycling, high safety, and high stability, which are more in line with the characteristics of the current Electric Bicycle market. This is also why even after so many years, lead-acid batteries still stand firm in the battery market.